Connecticut Wuhan Virus: Countermeasures ARE Working
Because there is a daily rise in the cumulative Wuhan Virus numbers in Connecticut (as predicted), it’s easy to feel a sense of doom and gloom. Although I would not want to give anyone the impression that I’m making light of the situation, I do want to point out that the data from the past week does give some grounds for optimism: in short, the numerous and varied “countermeasures” that Connecticut has enacted (and its citizens have followed) appear to be working. And this assessment is not based on hope or wishful thinking, but rather from the data itself.
The raw data is, in this case, the total number of proven corona virus cases, cumulatively, in our state day by day, beginning with last Saturday:
Saturday March 14 = 20
Sunday March 15 = 26
Monday March 16 = 41
Tuesday March 17 = 68
Wednesday March 18 = 96
Thursday March 19 = 159
Friday March 20 = 194
Sat March 21 = 223
However, the raw data, in this case is misleading. Because cumulative data continues inexorably to increase (it can’t BY DEFINITION decrease because it’s cumulative), it’s hard to appreciate what the RATE of increase is doing. In order to get a better sense of what this important parameter is doing we can do some simple math.
First, we transform the raw data of cases per day into the CHANGE in the numbers of cases per day, the so called “delta”, which is calculated simply by subtracting the number of cases on day 1 from the number of cases on day 2.
From 3/14->3/15 the delta is 6
From 3/15-> 3/16 delta is 15
From 3/16-> 3/17 the delta is 27
From 3/17 to 3/18 the delta is 28
From 3/18-> 3/19 the delta is 63
From 3/19-> 3/20 the delta is 35
From 3/20->3/21 the delta is 29
Now, in order to put these “deltas” into the proper perspective we need to compare them to the size of the population on the day they apply. To do this we calculate the percentage of change the delta represents.
The simple percentage formula is:
X/100 = D/P
Where X is the percentage of change between 2 days (which is what we want to determine). D is the delta and P is the population size on day 1 of each 2 day interval.
% = X = 100D/P
So, for 3/14->3/15 the percentage of change in the delta is:
X/100 = 6/20
or:
600/20
Solving this we find that delta represents a 30% increase.
We do the same calculation for each interval and find the deltas for each interval are:
3/14->3/15 = 30%
3/15->3/16 = 58%
3/16->3/17 = 66%
3/17->3/18 = 41%
3/18->3/19= 66%
3/19->3/20 = 22%
3/20->3/21 = 15%
These figures show that, although the total number of cases of Wuhan Virus in Connecticut continues to increase, it is doing so at a decreasing rate. This is what some people refer to as “flattening the curve.” Now it is true that the precision of the raw data is limited due to the vagaries of testing availability, uncertainties in the diagnosis and many other factors. But IF the statistics thus far are giving us the correct impression of the status of the Wuhan Virus in Connecticut and IF they continue to hold as time goes on, then there MAY be grounds to believe that the countermeasures we’ve enacted already are starting to slow the spread of this terrible disease. Take home point:
EVERYONE IN CONNECTICUT: KEEP DOING WHAT YOU’RE DOING, FOLLOW THE CDC AND CONNECTICUT GOVERNMENTAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND TAKE HEART!