Blunders All Around
Let me say at the outset: Zelensky was wrong. Changing his commitment to the rare earth deal last minute and then proceeding with the press conference was not just wrong, it was stupid. However, Trump and Vance handled it terribly. And, just how damaging this fiasco will be to the US as well as the Ukraine remains to be seen.
First, let’s “set the scene.” The rare earth deal was an ingenious way for the United States to recoup some or all of the 340 BILLION we have, thus far, provided to Ukraine. Some estimates of the value of rare earth metals in the Ukraine to be TRILLIONS of dollars of which half would go to Ukraine and half to us. But beyond the monetary value that such a deal would have for Ukraine there are security benefits as well. It SHOULD have been obvious to Zelensky that once America had established a very lucrative mining enterprise in his country, that America would naturally want to protect our investment resulting in de facto security that Zelensky says isdesperately needed. It is counterintuitive that Zelensky would renege on this deal. It’s now rumored that the Obama/Susan Rice cabal is behind Zelensky’s last minute change of heart. Why would the cabal do such a thing when the deal is good for Ukraine AND good for the US? It can only be in order to make Trump look bad (damaging Trump is, apparently, the ONLY thing they really care about).
Now, the previously negotiated rare earth deal was intended to cement Ukraine and American solidarity and the press conference following the signing was intended to be a ”love fest” in which the prospects for Ukrainian/Russian peace would be increased and we would come out the “good guy” for all the world to see. However, once the raison d’être for the press conference no longer existed, BOTH sides should have immediately cancelled the press conference and made plans to negotiate further. It’s unclear why Trump would have agreed to continuing with the press conference under those circumstances. It’s ALSO unclear why Zelensky would have continued. If he thought he could pressure Trump in the media or in the court of public opinion, he is SORELY MISTAKEN.
Now, having said that, Trump and Vance SHOULD have taken the high road and politely stated that they had more “work” to do, and leave it at that. Dressing Zelensky down in front of the whole world accomplished NOTHING, but poisoning the process, making Trump look like a bully and decreasing the chance for peace.
Now it’s time to look at what could possibly have been Zelensky’s expectations. As mentioned above, if he thought he could strong arm Trump, that simply won’t happen. More likely he’s expecting the EU to come to his rescue, as evidenced by his immediate trip to London to meet with UK’s prime minister, Kier Starmer and representative of the EU. And, there are several good reasons for the EU to support Ukraine:
1: It makes the EU look good.
2: It makes the US look irrelevant.
3: The EU also might arrange a rare earth mining deal of its own, which could be very lucrative for them.
4: The EU is almost as afraid of Putin as Zelensky is.
However, despite all of the above, I feel it’s unlikely that the EU will contribute substantial monetary support to Ukraine for the simple reason that they’re broke. In fact, the only European country that’s solvent right now is Germany, and, thus far, Germany hasn’t given a single Deutschmark to Ukraine.
BUT… IF… the EU DOES fork out the Euros, it would be disastrous for us.
1: it will inevitably reduce Trump’s clout.
2: It will diminish our prestige.
3: It will embolden Zelensky to continue the war.
4: We will lose access to the lucrative rare earth mining we had negotiated.
5: We will lose all hope of recouping the vast sums we have provided.
6: We will face an emboldened Putin, that’s much less afraid of the EU than he is of Trump.
BUT…will the EU “play ball?”… As Trump likes to say: “We’ll have to see what happens.”