Hardball, Part Two
Continued from Hardball, Part One
Then, there’s Iran. As the world’s preeminent leader in state sponsored terrorism, Iran would be on every sane person’s short list of countries that should NOT posses nuclear weapons. Kahmeni and Rouhani have been playing America for the fool on this for quite some time now. Obama’s so called JCPOA, or Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (They couldn’t decide, apparently, what to even CALL the thing!) was a complete joke. Although lip service was given to International Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) oversight, monitoring of Iran’s nuclear facilities was left primarily to… THE IRANIANS! That’s right! The Fox is guarding the hen house. And, if the IAEC has any “concerns” it must submit them to Iran, and Iran, amazingly, then has 24 DAYS to respond!… 24 DAYS!!!… And, get this, the IAEC has NO ACCESS to MILITARY SITES which are, apparently, off limits to inspectors, permanently. What kind of deal was this???… Right!… It wasn’t a real deal at all. So what to do? Fight back! Trump is once again using the most effective motivator of all: the almighty dollar (or in this case, the “almighty rial”). Trump has re-instituted sanctions designed to cripple Iran’s economy. There has already been considerable civil unrest in Iran, and a crumbling economy might be the spark that leads to regime change. As the situation on the ground in Iran worsens, however, Tehran may become increasingly eager to use military diversions to distract their increasingly restive populace. We may have already seen the beginnings of such diversions: bombing oil tankers in international waters in the Straight of Hormuz, shooting down a US drone also over international waters, and, even, bombing a Saudi Arabian power station in Jizan provence. Mr. Trump, rightfully, has made it abundantly clear to Iran that our military response to further aggression is set to a hair trigger. If regime change does not occur in Iran, and if the current despots are so foolish as provoke us, air strikes on military targets would be in the offing. And, if Iran becomes increasingly bellicose, a joint US, Israeli and Saudi military operation (wouldn’t that combination be a kick?) will take out the Nantz and Fordo reactors, solving the nuclear problem for good. So, by using a combination of “carrot” (financial incentives) and stick (“military options”) Mr. Trump is, increasingly, tightening the screws. It it working? You bet it is. Tehran has been “howling” (that we are “crazy” and “retarded” and “warmongering” and the like) and threatening (“the US is no longer safe”, “Death to America” and the like) . But they are quite aware that they are now in our cross hairs. Hardball.
And, lastly, China. Although China has been an avid trading partner with the United States and proffers many claims of esteem and friendship with us, many of their practices are quite detrimental to the US. Firstly, China continuously manipulates its currency to keep the valuation of the dollar artificially high so as to give Chinese companies a 30% to 40% advantage in the international marketplace. Not only is this “dirty pool”, it’s ILLEGAL. Second, China has many state owned enterprises which it heavily subsidizes thereby creating unfair competitive advantages for those companies which then allows them to drive competitors out of business. The Alliance For American Manufacturing estimates that, since 2001, America has lost 3.4 MILLION jobs as a result. Third, China typically demands unprecedented degrees of technology transfer from American companies operating in China. In order to set up a factory in China, for example, American companies must “partner” with local companies who then benefit from the aquisition of the American technology. And last, and most frustratingly of all, is China’s frequent outright THEFT of American intellectual property. Forbes estimates the cost to American companies to be $200 to $600 billion annually! Yes, 200 to 600 BILLION!!! Diplomatic entreaties regarding this have not been successful. China, apparently, has no intention of taking any steps to “level the playing” field. What to do? Fight back! Once again, Mr. Trump can use the greatest of all motivators, the almighty dollar (or, in this case the “almighty yuan”). Mr. Trump knows that, with an annual trade deficit (in 2018) of $378.6 BILLION on total trade of $ 659.8 BILLION (We buy $378.6 billion dollars MORE from them than they buy from us), we HAVE THE UPPER HAND. Enacting tariffs will cost China dearly. While it’s true, they will retaliate with tariffs of their own, and we may have to pay more, initially, for a number of Chinese commodities, my bet is that we won’t have to do so for long. Once the tariffs begin to “bite” I think we’ll see major concessions on all of the issues discussed above. Losing hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars profit each year would be an unlikely choice for China to make. But, if they do make such a choice and continue with their unfair practices, well, Mr. Trump is quite prepared to “kick it up a notch” further with increasingly stiff penalties. Hardball, once again.