Speak Now Or Forever Hold Your Peace
Epistemology is a branch of philosophy that deals with how we determine truth. Although the topic might seem simple on the face of it, a closer look reveals a much more complicated picture. In the realm of science a postulate is deemed to be true if it makes predictions that are found to be accurate in various experiments. The matter is not so simple in the case of stories and histories, however. The elaborate structure of “due process” in our legal system is a testament to how difficult it is to establish whether an accusation (be it of a crime, breach of contract, or other type of malfeasance) is or is not true. Ultimately the veracity of an accusation is a judgement that is made based upon the “preponderance of evidence” and typically involves many criteria. Adjudicating a murder, for example, involves establishing, motive, means and opportunity. Evidence and testimony of witnesses become crucial. The whole process involves teams of people and, usually, a presentation of alternative narratives to a judge and jury, that then decide. The process is often a long and complicated one.
The task of “adjudicating” the matter of accusations made by Dr. Christine Blasey Ford against Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh is, in some ways, even more difficult. What’s involved here is a sexual encounter that is alleged to have occurred 30 years ago, and from which no evidence remains. The term “adjudicating” may not be, technically, correct in this setting because neither is accused of a crime, but the impending Supreme Court Appointment will force a decision as to the veracity of Dr. Ford’s accusation. In such a case, the need for techniques of inferential reasoning, whether we like it or not, will be inescapable.
First and foremost is the question of character. It is often said, rightly, that sexual assault is as much about power as it is sexual gratification. It is also well established that sexual predators tend to be “repeat offenders”. The same impulses and compulsions that lead an individual to sexual assault are, demonstrably, ingrained in that individual’s character. As a consequence, sexual assault almost never occurs as an isolated incident. So, in order to corroborate Dr. Ford’s accusations, it is of utmost importance to determine whether there are other incidents. When, for example, 87 different women accuse Harvey Weinstein of sexual misconduct, we can be certain there is merit to those accusations. In Judge Kavanaugh’s case, however, the total number of accusers is exactly ONE.
To further explore the character issue, we can look for what might be termed character references. In Judge Kavanaugh’s case, 65 alumni women vouched for his character. Subsequently, a large number of alumni have vouched for Dr. Ford’s character. So, does this result in a “tie”? Not really. The Kavanaugh camp has something the Ford camp does not: two of Judge Kavanaugh’s former girlfriends have come forward and have disparaged the accusations and supported the Judge. And they were intimately involved with him.
Now focusing on the other side of the character issue, we should look, instead, at Dr. Ford. In this context it is proper to question whether her motivation may not be quite what she claims. It is public record that she is a member of the Democratic Party and has made donations not only to the Democratic Party but also to the Bernie Sanders campaign. Supporting Mr. Sanders (in his primary challenge to Hillary Clinton) would, of and by itself, firmly establish her left wing bona fides (source: the Wall Street Journal). But, she also has donated to ActBlue a “progressive” activist group. And, there’s more. The attorney representing her is Debra Katz, who just happens to be vice chairman of “The Project On Government Oversight”, a group that is funded in large part by GEORGE SOROS and his Open Society Foundation. Would “resistance” activists stoop so low as to fabricate, or, at least, greatly exaggerate this narrative? Recall that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said, recently, that he would go after Kavanaugh “with everything I’ve got.” And other “resistance” activists also have indicated that Judge Kavanaugh must be stopped “by ANY means necessary.” So, would they stoop so low as to fabricate or exaggerate the narrative in an attempt to block Kavanaugh? The answer, unfortunately, is yes. And there’s actually one more tit-for-tat that may or may not be relevant here. It turn’s out that Judge Kavanaugh’s mother, also a judge, reportedly signed a foreclosure order on a house belonging to Dr. Ford’s parents. Hmmm.
But, aside from questions of motivation, there are other factors that impugn the veracity of Dr. Ford’s accusations. For one, there’s the vagueness of her narrative. Dr. Ford, despite claiming great emotional sequelae, didn’t remember exactly WHEN the “assault” occurred! Initially she said “the mid 80’s”. This would, on an intuitive basis, be rather suspicious. But, further, I have also read statements by victims of sexual assault that say the victims in such cases invariably remember VERY SPECIFICALLY WHEN such trauma occurred, as well as much detail of the event. And these vivid recollections remain, even after many years. The fact that date is ambiguous in Dr. Ford’s story, as well as the paucity of other details, has led some #metooer’s to doubt her accusations. There have even been varying accounts of how many boys were in the room. And, then there’s also the lack of reporting to the police, or even discussing the event with anyone for DECADES.
And, the latest development in this strange case, just hours ago, is that Dr. Ford is now REFUSING to testify, unless the FBI investigates FIRST. This would appear to be another stalling tactic, as involvement of the FBI might be expected to slow the confirmation process until after the November elections, which is, of course, EXACTLY what the Democratic “progressives” want.
In my view, if Dr. Ford wants her accusations to be taken seriously, she must step forward, to a bipartisan Senate panel, NOW. If she doesn’t do so, a partisan effort to delay the confirmation would be the inescapable conclusion, and, accordingly, the confirmation process should resume without her as scheduled. She will have had her chance. As they used to say at weddings: speak now or forever hold your peace.