Keystone Cops
The recent CIA report accusing Russian hackers of working to undermine the candidacy of Hillary Clinton, has drawn some “push back” from Mr. Trump and the RNC. This prompted me to take a look back at the record of that august agency.
After a bit of research, it’s kind of embarrassing to say this, but it really does appear that our Central Intelligence Agency isn’t very intelligent. They have a startling history of gaffs and failures, missed opportunities and operations gone horribly awry. In fact, without too much exaggeration, they look a bit like modern “Keystone Cops.”
The CIA was formed in 1947 specifically to prevent another intelligence failure like the one that preceded the Japanese attack on Pear Harbor. Exactly one week before the attack, our military attache in Java filled a complete report that an attack was “imminent.” That report got lost, was unheeded, and, as a result, America was completely unprepared for the attack that followed. The CIA was intended to prevent such a failure from happening again. While the agency has, undoubtably, produced significant reporting over the years, their accuracy record is spotty at best. Let’s list some examples.
1. Bay of Pigs, Cuba, 1961. A CIA planned invasion and coup was so poorly planed that anti Castro forces were easily defeated resulting in loss of life and poisoning Cuban-American relations for half a century.
2. Cuban Missile Crisis. A CIA report just ONE MONTH before the crisis concluded the Soviets were “unlikely” to establish a missile base!
3. The Tet Offensive, Vietnam, 1968. The CIA completely missed the massive and coordinated Vietcong offensive.
4. Yom Kippur attack, Israel, 1968. The CIA totally missed the coordinated attack by Syria AND Egypt!
5. The Iranian Revolution, 1979. Four MONTHS prior to the revolution the CIA issued a report that “Iran is not in a revolutionary or pre revolutionary situation”!
6. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Missed.
7. The COLLAPSE of the Soviet Union in 1991. Missed again.
8. The Indian nuclear test in 1998. Missed again.
9. The September 11, 2001 attacks in the United States. Missed again, big time!
10. In 2003 the CIA wrongly concluded that Saddam Hussein harbored Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq. None were found.
11. The “Arab Spring” uprisings in 2011. Completely missed.
12. In 2011 the CIA carried out arms shipments to Arab “moderates” that turned out to be Al-Qaeda!
All in all, a surprisingly poor record for an agency who’s budget (in 2013) was 15 BILLION dollars, and upon whom the American people rely for their safety and security.
By the way, the research for much of the above is from an article by Uri Friedman on Jan 3, 2012. The interested reader can view an expanded discussion at foriegnpolicy.com.
So, when Mr. Trump harbors some skepticism about the recent CIA conclusions vis-a-vis Russian hacking, there are sufficient historical grounds to do so. Further, some of the hacking identification process looks at things such as working hours, holidays off, favorite hacking programs and the like. Although this type of analysis has merit, it should hardly be considered foolproof. Although one can find professionals in the field of cyber security that claim reliable identifications after the fact, experts do disagree of the reliability of such claims.
Considering all of this, a certain amount of skepticism toward CIA reporting would seem warranted. And, given the partisan circumstances under which the current report was issued, one might look forward to, perhaps, a change in the “culture” at the agency coming soon.